Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
