Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
